Strategy Expectancy Calculator: Kelly Criterion

Explore how take profit, stop loss, win rate, and trading fees interact mathematically. See your strategy's expectancy, break-even win rate, profit factor, and Kelly criterion — all calculated transparently with no hidden assumptions.

🔬 Strategy Expectancy Calculator

All 5 inputs are yours to control — no hidden assumptions. Start with your strategy's historical win rate, then adjust TP/SL to find the break-even point. If your win rate is above break-even, Kelly tells you how much to risk per trade.

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Built by a real trader

These tools are based on the same calculations I use for my own trading on Hyperliquid and OKX. Not theoretical — tested with real money.