Prediction markets are exploding. Polymarket processed over $9 billion in total platform volume in 2024, driven primarily by the US election cycle. Kalshi is now live in all 50 US states. And quietly, Interactive Brokers built their own prediction market platform — ForecastTrader — that lets you trade event contracts on economics, politics, climate, and financial markets with zero-commission on ForecastEx contracts and just $0.01/contract on CME events.
I have been running a live USDJPY momentum strategy on Interactive Brokers since late 2024. When ForecastTrader launched, I started using it to hedge macro event risk — particularly around Fed rate decisions and CPI prints that directly affect my forex positions. This guide covers everything I have learned about the platform, from opening your first position to building a repeatable event-trading workflow.
What Is IBKR ForecastTrader?
ForecastTrader is Interactive Brokers' built-in platform for trading forecast contracts and event contracts. Think of it as IBKR's answer to Polymarket and Kalshi — but integrated directly into your existing brokerage account.
The core concept is simple: you buy YES or NO positions on whether a specific event will happen. Each contract settles at either $1.00 (event happened) or $0.00 (it did not). Your maximum loss is capped at the price you paid for the contract.
ForecastTrader offers two types of contracts from two different exchanges:
ForecastEx Forecast Contracts
These are listed on ForecastEx, a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market. They cover:
- Political events — US federal, state, and municipal elections
- Economic indicators — CPI, Fed Funds Rate, GDP, unemployment
- Climate indicators — temperatures, atmospheric CO2 levels
CME Event Contracts
These are listed on the CME Group and cover futures-adjacent markets:
- Equity indices — S&P 500, Nasdaq daily close levels
- Energy — crude oil, natural gas price thresholds
- Metals — gold, silver daily close levels
- Forex — EUR/USD, USD/JPY daily close levels
ForecastTrader vs Polymarket vs Kalshi: Quick Comparison
Before diving into the how-to, here is how IBKR's offering stacks up against the two most popular prediction market platforms:
| Feature | IBKR ForecastTrader | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC (ForecastEx + CME) | Unregulated (crypto) | CFTC |
| Commission | $0.00 (ForecastEx) / $0.01 (CME) | ~2% on winnings | ~$0.02-0.07/contract |
| Funding | Bank wire, existing IBKR account | Crypto only (USDC) | Bank, debit card |
| Markets | Economics, politics, climate, commodities | Anything (user-created) | Economics, politics, sports |
| Settlement | USD, directly in brokerage account | USDC on Polygon | USD |
| Incentive Coupon | 3.83% APY on held positions | None | None |
| KYC Required | Yes (full brokerage account) | No | Yes |
| Available | US + select international (IBKR clients) | Global (except US for some) | US (42+ states) |
How to Access ForecastTrader
Option 1: Dedicated ForecastTrader Website
Navigate to forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com and log in with your regular IBKR credentials. This is the cleanest interface for browsing and trading event contracts.
Option 2: Through TWS (Trader Workstation)
1. Open TWS
2. Click the Trade tab 3. Select IBKR ForecastTrader 4. Your browser will open the ForecastTrader interfaceOption 3: Through IBKR Mobile
1. Open IBKR Mobile
2. Navigate to Trade > IBKR ForecastTrader 3. The ForecastTrader web page opens within the appOption 4: Through Client Portal
1. Log in to Client Portal
2. Go to Trading > IBKR ForecastTraderAll four methods connect to the same underlying platform. I personally use the dedicated website because the interface is purpose-built for event contracts, while TWS is better for my regular forex and equity trading.
Step-by-Step: Placing Your First Prediction Trade
Let me walk through a real example. Say the Fed meeting is tomorrow and you believe they will hold rates steady.
Step 1: Find Your Market
On the ForecastTrader homepage, click Markets at the top. You will see two tabs:
- Forecast Contracts — ForecastEx economic, political, and climate events
- Event Contracts — CME futures market events
Step 2: Understand the Pricing
The YES price reflects the market's implied probability of the event happening. If YES is trading at $0.72, the market is pricing a 72% chance the event occurs.
- Buy YES at $0.72 — You pay $0.72 per contract. If the event happens, you receive $1.00 (profit: $0.28). If it does not happen, you lose $0.72.
- Buy NO at $0.29 — You pay $0.29 per contract. If the event does NOT happen, you receive $1.00 (profit: $0.71). If it does happen, you lose $0.29.
Step 3: Place the Trade
1. Click YES or NO next to your chosen contract
2. Enter the number of contracts (each contract = $1.00 notional) 3. Review your maximum cost and potential payout 4. Click SubmitFor ForecastEx contracts, you pay $0.00 in commissions. For CME contracts, you pay $0.01 per contract.
Step 4: Monitor and Manage
Your open positions appear in the Portfolio section. You can:
- Close early by selling your position before settlement (if you change your view or want to lock in profit)
- Hold to settlement and receive $1.00 per winning contract or $0.00 per losing contract
- Earn the incentive coupon — 3.83% APY on ForecastEx positions accrues daily, paid monthly
Practical Strategies for ForecastTrader
After trading on the platform for several months, here are the approaches that have worked for me:
Strategy 1: Macro Event Hedging
This is my primary use case. I run a USDJPY momentum strategy that gets crushed by unexpected CPI or NFP prints. Before major data releases, I buy event contracts that profit if the number comes in hot or cold (depending on my exposure).
Example workflow:- I am long USDJPY because I expect dollar strength
- CPI release is tomorrow
- I buy YES contracts on "Will CPI exceed X percent" at $0.40
- If CPI comes in hot: my USDJPY position profits AND my YES contracts pay $1.00 each — double win
- If CPI comes in cold: my USDJPY position suffers, but my YES contracts only cost $0.40 each — capped downside
- Net effect: I have hedged the binary risk of the CPI print for a known, fixed cost
Strategy 2: Mispriced Probabilities
Sometimes the implied probabilities on ForecastTrader diverge from other prediction markets or your own analysis. If ForecastTrader prices a Fed rate cut at 35% probability but CME FedWatch shows 55%, that is a potential edge.
Check these sources for probability comparison:
Like what you're reading? Try it yourself — this link supports ChartedTrader at no cost to you.
Open an Interactive Brokers Account →- CME FedWatch Tool — real-time rate probabilities from futures
- Polymarket — crowd-sourced probabilities
- Bloomberg terminal — if you have access
Strategy 3: The Incentive Coupon Play
ForecastEx positions earn a 3.83% APY incentive coupon based on the daily closing market value of your position. This accrues daily and pays monthly. No other prediction market offers this.
For longer-dated contracts (quarterly or yearly) where you have a strong directional view, the coupon effectively reduces your cost basis over time. On a $0.50 contract held for 90 days, the coupon adds roughly $0.004 — small but free money.
Understanding the Fee Structure
This is where ForecastTrader truly differentiates itself:
ForecastEx Contracts
- Commission: $0.00 per contract (both open and close)
- No exchange fees
- No regulatory fees
- Settlement: automatic at $0 or $1.00
CME Event Contracts
- Commission: $0.01 per contract
- Exchange fees apply (minimal)
- Regulatory fees apply (minimal)
- Overnight position fees may apply
What Markets Can You Trade?
The available markets are narrower than Polymarket (where anyone can create a market) but more focused on economically meaningful events:
Economics (Most Liquid)
- CPI / Inflation — monthly prints, year-over-year changes
- Fed Funds Rate — FOMC meeting outcomes
- GDP — quarterly growth numbers
- Unemployment — monthly jobs report
- Retail Sales — consumer spending data
Financial Markets (CME)
- S&P 500 daily close — will SPX close above/below X today?
- Gold daily close — will gold close above/below a certain price today?
- Crude oil daily close — WTI price thresholds
- EUR/USD, USD/JPY daily close — forex levels
Political (Seasonal)
- US election outcomes — federal, state, municipal
- Policy decisions — government shutdown, debt ceiling
Climate
- Temperature records — will average temp exceed a threshold?
- CO2 levels — atmospheric concentration thresholds
Who Should (and Should Not) Use ForecastTrader
ForecastTrader is ideal if you:
- Already have an Interactive Brokers account (no new signup needed)
- Trade forex, stocks, or futures and want to hedge macro event risk
- Prefer a regulated, USD-settled platform over crypto-based alternatives
- Want the 3.83% APY incentive coupon on held positions
- Value zero-commission trading on economic events
ForecastTrader is NOT for you if:
- You want to trade pop culture events, sports, or crypto-specific predictions (use Polymarket or Kalshi)
- You do not want KYC verification (use Polymarket)
- You want high-frequency, ultra-liquid markets with millions in daily volume on a single question (Polymarket wins here for major events)
- You are outside the US or not eligible for an IBKR account
Tips from Real Trading Experience
After integrating ForecastTrader into my workflow alongside a live forex strategy, here is what I have learned:
1. Liquidity is thinner than Polymarket. Expect wider spreads, especially on political and climate contracts. Economic contracts (CPI, Fed) have reasonable liquidity. Do not expect instant fills on large orders. 2. The real value is integration. Having event contract P&L in the same account as my forex and equity positions means I can see my total macro exposure in one place. PortfolioAnalyst and Ask IBKR show the full picture. 3. Use it for hedging, not speculation. The edge on ForecastTrader is not in pure prediction accuracy — Polymarket's crowd is often more efficient for political events. The edge is in using event contracts as cheap, fixed-downside hedges for your existing positions. 4. Watch the calendar. CPI, NFP, and FOMC dates are when economic contracts are most liquid and most useful. Set alerts on your TradingView chart for upcoming data releases. 5. Start small. Each contract is just $1.00 notional. You can trade 10-50 contracts ($5-25 at risk) to learn the mechanics before sizing up.Setting Up Permissions
Not all IBKR account types have automatic access to forecast and event contracts. Here is how to enable it:
1. Log in to Client Portal
2. Go to Settings > Trading Permissions 3. Look for Forecast Contracts or Event Contracts under the United States section 4. Enable the relevant permissions 5. You may need to acknowledge additional risk disclosuresIf you are on a paper trading account, ForecastTrader may not be available — it requires a funded live account.
How Settlement Works
Settlement is straightforward:
- Winning contracts: You receive $1.00 per contract deposited directly into your IBKR account
- Losing contracts: The contract expires worthless ($0.00)
- Early exit: You can sell your position at market price before settlement
There is no partial settlement — it is always all-or-nothing, $1.00 or $0.00.
ForecastTrader and Tax Implications
Event contract gains and losses are reported in your regular IBKR tax documents. They are typically treated as short-term capital gains (or losses) since most contracts are held for less than a year.
You can use IBKR's PortfolioAnalyst and Tax Planner tools to track your event contract P&L alongside your other positions. The Flex Query system can also export event contract trades for automated record-keeping.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much money do I need to start trading on ForecastTrader?
Each contract costs between $0.01 and $0.99. You can start with as little as $1-5 in your IBKR account to buy a handful of contracts. There is no minimum deposit specifically for ForecastTrader.
Are ForecastTrader positions SIPC insured?
ForecastEx forecast contracts are held at ForecastEx LLC (a CFTC-registered DCO). CME event contracts are held through the CME clearinghouse. Standard IBKR customer protections apply to your account, but the contracts themselves carry event risk (they can settle at $0).
Can I trade ForecastTrader from outside the US?
ForecastEx contracts are available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, and Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited. CME event contracts may have different availability. Check your Client Portal trading permissions.
How do I close a position before settlement?
Simply sell your YES or NO contracts at the current market price. This works just like selling any other security — you lock in whatever profit or loss exists at that point. Note that liquidity may be thin on some contracts, so use limit orders rather than market orders.
Is there a mobile app for ForecastTrader?
ForecastTrader is accessed through a web interface that works on mobile browsers. You can reach it through IBKR Mobile by navigating to Trade > IBKR ForecastTrader. There is no standalone ForecastTrader app.
Bottom Line
ForecastTrader fills a gap that no other prediction market platform addresses: regulated event contracts integrated directly into a full-service brokerage account. The zero-commission ForecastEx contracts and 3.83% APY incentive coupon sweeten the deal.
It is not a Polymarket replacement — Polymarket wins on market variety, liquidity, and the ability to trade anything from elections to meme coins to sports. But if you already trade on Interactive Brokers and want to hedge macro event risk with fixed-downside contracts, ForecastTrader is the cleanest way to do it.
I use it specifically for CPI and FOMC hedging against my USDJPY positions. The total cost is usually under $25 per event, and the peace of mind of having a structured hedge beats the anxiety of watching a surprise data print hammer my portfolio.
Ready to try prediction markets? If you do not have an Interactive Brokers account yet, you can open one here — both the referrer and you receive bonuses (up to $200 cash for the referrer and up to $1,000 in IBKR stock for new accounts).---
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